14509 River St

Blakely, GA 39823

$29,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,024/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $569/mo
• Annual: $6,823/yr
• Cap rate: 29.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.50%
• DSCR: 4.63
• 1% rule: 3.42%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $147 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $-60 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#476 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Early County (town): math 16% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #150 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Early County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Early County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $25k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.