2804 Dancer Ct

Raleigh, NC 27610

$190,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,823/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $161/mo
• Annual: $1,927/yr
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.62%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (4.0% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $182k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Creek Elementary (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,028 of 1,410 statewide, top 73%, 497 students, 99% FRL); Carnage Middle (math 63% / reading 69%, grade A-, #26 of 475 statewide, top 5%, 844 students, 32% FRL); Southeast Raleigh High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #414 of 535 statewide, top 79%, 1,401 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 30% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 594 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $190k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.