12975 Stillwater Cove Dr

Astatula, FL 34705

$599,990C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,282 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$170
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,239
• Net cashflow: $345/mo
• Annual: $4,135/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.46%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $167,997

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $590k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $528k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Astatula Elementary School (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 656 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.