3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,760 sqft ·
Built 2005
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 334 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,986/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$268
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$417
Net cashflow
$43/mo
Annual
$515/yr
Cap rate
6.51%
Cash-on-cash
0.77%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($515/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (17.2% below list).
It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $199k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#472 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Paradise ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #74 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Paradise El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 436 students, 34% FRL); Paradise Middle (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 293 students, 25% FRL); Paradise H S (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 388 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Bridgeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G74Z9F5HYGJ9JQ
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29