4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,806 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,294/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,626
Tax + insurance
−$517
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$482
Net cashflow
$-330/mo
Annual
$-3,959/yr
Cap rate
5.02%
Cash-on-cash
-4.56%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$86,797
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $310k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (15.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (26.0% below list).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $229k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#750 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $25k; list at $310k implies a 1140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,294/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G7BC3Q6749FQ3D
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29