2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
736 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$625/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$52
Tax + insurance
−$25
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$131
Net cashflow
$416/mo
Annual
$4,992/yr
Cap rate
56.22%
Cash-on-cash
178.30%
DSCR
8.93
1% rule
6.25%
Cash to close
$2,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($625 rent vs $10k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $9k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Pine Bluff School District (urban): math 6% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #236 of 238 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 56.2% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29