The 2082 Plan

Tyler, TX 75703

$360,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,036 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,270
• Tax + insurance: −$722
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-698/mo
• Annual: $-8,381/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $121,226

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $361k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Bryan C Jack El (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 685 students, 46% FRL); Three Lakes Middle (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 873 students, 64% FRL); Tyler Legacy H S (math 34% / reading 49%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,594 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 811 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Tyler — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.