5153 Oak Hill Rd #511

Delray Beach, FL 33484

$227,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,580/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$1,066
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$752
• Net cashflow: $116/mo
• Annual: $1,390/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $63,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $227k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $227k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in FL, #3,160 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Banyan Creek Elementary School (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 844 students, 51% FRL); Atlantic High School (math 28% / reading 52%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,889 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $227k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Delray Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,580/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 991% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.