100 Tori Ln

Welcome, NC 27295

$220,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,288/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-277/mo
• Annual: $-3,325/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (41.5% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#368 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Davidson County Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #62 of 178 in NC (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.6% in Welcome — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.