90 El Rocko Rd

Junction City, CA 96048

$150,000D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,544/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$580
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-146/mo
• Annual: $-1,758/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (17.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,040 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Junction City Elementary (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #201 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?