324 Pear Ln

Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$180,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,822/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $986/mo
• Annual: $11,826/yr
• Cap rate: 12.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.47%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $986 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Taylor Mountain Elementary (444 students, 81% FRL); Elsie Allen High (1,055 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 22% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $180k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.