3407 Brush St

Muscle Shoals, AL 35661

$95,600B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,156/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$501
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $351/mo
• Annual: $4,217/yr
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.75%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $26,768

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $661 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#68 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Muscle Shoals City (urban): math 42% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #11 of 129 in AL (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcbride Elementary School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C+, #82 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 614 students, 47% FRL); Muscle Shoals Middle School (math 37% / reading 59%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 648 students, 48% FRL); Muscle Shoals High School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 853 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 25% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Colbert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Colbert County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $96k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.6% in Muscle Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.