4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,269 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,551/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,152
Tax + insurance
−$314
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$536
Net cashflow
$549/mo
Annual
$6,589/yr
Cap rate
9.29%
Cash-on-cash
10.71%
DSCR
1.48
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$61,516
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Spruce School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 313 students, 68% FRL); North Tonawanda Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 447 students, 50% FRL); North Tonawanda High School (math 93% / reading 64%, grade A-, #562 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,001 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $115k; list at $220k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-G97166AANEG4S4
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29