14 Kincaid

Calexico, CA 92231

$289,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $297/mo
• Annual: $3,564/yr
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.40%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (10.0% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#389 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, amenities B+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F, employment F.
• Calexico Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #259 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rockwood Elementary (579 students, 95% FRL); William Moreno Junior High (643 students, 89% FRL); Calexico High (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 2,836 students, 80% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 271 units permitted in Imperial County in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Imperial County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $289k implies a 588% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.8% in Calexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.