6875 Crimson Ln

Gulf Shores, AL 36542

$336,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,907 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,762
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-165/mo
• Annual: $-1,980/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $94,080

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $336k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (30.7% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#61 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Shores Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #63 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,062 students, 44% FRL); Gulf Shores Middle School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 589 students, 48% FRL); Gulf Shores High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 799 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1191 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $234k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 0.2% in Gulf Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.