The 1651 Plan

Lindale, TX 75771

$269,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,882/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-932/mo
• Annual: $-11,179/yr
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.41%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $97,986

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-932 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (30.3% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#52 in TX, #2,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Velma Penny El (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #199 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 541 students, 48% FRL); E J Moss Int (math 66% / reading 59%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 981 students, 45% FRL); Lindale H S (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A-, #60 of 1,632 statewide, top 4%, 1,265 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.