40 Calder St

Providence, RI 02907

$359,900D

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $891/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $100,772

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($891/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George J. West El. School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #148 of 167 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 84% FRL); Nathanael Greene Middle (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #37 of 57 statewide, top 64%, 808 students, 85% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #53 of 58 statewide, top 96%, 1,302 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.3%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $295k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,963/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 2189% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.