838 Burton Ridge Dr

Loganville, GA 30052

$415,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,896 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-415/mo
• Annual: $-4,982/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (37.5% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#39 in GA, #4,689 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cooper Elementary School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade C, #185 of 1,228 statewide, top 16%, 1,447 students, 50% FRL); Mcconnell Middle School (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D, #103 of 470 statewide, top 23%, 2,176 students, 51% FRL); Archer High School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 3,134 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $415k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Loganville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.