2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
950 sqft ·
Built 1951
· Townhouse
· Active
· 351 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,576/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,075
Tax + insurance
−$397
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$751
Net cashflow
$1,353/mo
Annual
$16,235/yr
Cap rate
14.54%
Cash-on-cash
29.44%
DSCR
2.31
1% rule
1.74%
Cash to close
$57,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $205k).
It's been on market 351 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 89/100 on livability (#7 in NY, #165 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
Hewlett-Woodmere Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #59 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Franklin Early Childhood Center (422 students, 25% FRL); Woodmere Middle School (math 62% / reading 73%, grade A-, #98 of 729 statewide, top 14%, 716 students, 26% FRL); George W Hewlett High School (math 95% / reading 97%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 999 students, 26% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $177k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.8% in Hewlett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 351 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GBMBD10WJK0T1Q
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29