1041 N Clay Ave Unit E3

Kirkwood, MO 63122

$169,900C+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 857 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$239
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $370/mo
• Annual: $4,444/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#27 in MO, #2,478 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Kirkwood R-VII (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: F. P. Tillman Elem. (math 55% / reading 72%, grade B, #88 of 1,115 statewide, top 8%, 474 students, 6% FRL); North Kirkwood Middle (math 55% / reading 68%, grade B+, #16 of 391 statewide, top 4%, 653 students, 9% FRL); Kirkwood Sr. High (math 72% / reading 79%, grade A-, #3 of 521 statewide, top 0%, 1,775 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $170k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.4% in Kirkwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.