1907 E Mitchell St

Humboldt, TN 38343

$74,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $267/mo
• Annual: $3,201/yr
• Cap rate: 10.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.45%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $20,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($985 rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#289 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Humboldt City Schools (town): math 4% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #138 of 139 in TN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #884 of 952 statewide, top 93%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Humboldt Junior/Senior High School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #302 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 424 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 86% district-wide (86 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Gibson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gibson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $74k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.