20 White Birch Cir

Gates, NY 14624

$279,900D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,714 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,570/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$506
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $673/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($673/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (8.2% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $257k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Florence Brasser School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 400 students, 41% FRL); Gates-Chili Middle School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #504 of 729 statewide, top 70%, 854 students, 58% FRL); Gates-Chili High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,132 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.