3307 Pencombe Pl

Flint, MI 48503

$89,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,011 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $184/mo
• Annual: $2,210/yr
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.78%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $90k implies a 649% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.