3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,067 sqft ·
Built 2020
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,301/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$206
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$273
Net cashflow
$218/mo
Annual
$2,617/yr
Cap rate
8.57%
Cash-on-cash
8.13%
DSCR
1.36
1% rule
1.13%
Cash to close
$32,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
Roosevelt ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #553 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Roosevelt El (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 536 students, 76% FRL); Roosevelt J H (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 289 students, 74% FRL); Roosevelt H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 350 students, 70% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GD76GNC61FT6F1
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29