2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,155 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 197 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,448/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$939
Tax + insurance
−$298
HOA
−$350
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$304
Net cashflow
$-443/mo
Annual
$-5,321/yr
Cap rate
3.32%
Cash-on-cash
-10.62%
DSCR
0.53
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$50,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (35.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (19.1% below list).
It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $115k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Mary B Austin Elementary School (math 29% / reading 59%, grade F, #194 of 627 statewide, top 32%, 511 students, 51% FRL); Cl Scarborough Model Middle School (math 4% / reading 21%, grade F, #216 of 257 statewide, top 86%, 651 students, 94% FRL); Murphy High School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,254 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 506 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 5.3% in Mobile — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof shingles
— severe weathering
Moderate: exterior siding
— visible discoloration
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· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29