1039 Almond Dr

Vinton, VA 24179

$304,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,308/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-911/mo
• Annual: $-10,936/yr
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.85%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $85,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $304k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-911 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (53.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (57.0% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $131k (57.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#61 in VA, #1,742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: W.E. Cundiff Elementary (math 69% / reading 73%, grade A-, #303 of 1,108 statewide, top 28%, 490 students, 73% FRL); William Byrd Middle (math 68% / reading 74%, grade A, #77 of 342 statewide, top 23%, 827 students, 42% FRL); William Byrd High (math 77% / reading 89%, grade A, #33 of 319 statewide, top 11%, 1,142 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 22% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.8% in Vinton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.