63 Saddle Rd

Cannon AFB, NM 88101

$89,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 2017 · Other · Active · 643 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $521/mo
• Annual: $6,255/yr
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.96%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $25,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 643 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#135 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Clovis Municipal Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #13 of 29 in NM (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 643 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.