220 Flagstone Dr

Liberty, TX 77575

$239,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,095 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,692
• Tax + insurance: −$538
• HOA: −$39
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-847/mo
• Annual: $-10,163/yr
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.25%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $90,325

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-847 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (25.0% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hardin ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.