3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,536 sqft ·
Built 1985
· Condo
· Active
· 292 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,407/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$392
HOA
−$190
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$505
Net cashflow
$-70/mo
Annual
$-843/yr
Cap rate
5.97%
Cash-on-cash
-1.14%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$74,197
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-843/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (4.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (9.2% below list).
It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Eisenhower Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 661 students, 74% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 12518% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GE6DWG3XV5ZCYD
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29