105 Stage Coach Dr

Mission, TX 78574

$76,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $580/mo
• Annual: $6,957/yr
• Cap rate: 15.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.69%
• DSCR: 2.45
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $21,280

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hilda C Escobar/Alicia C Rios El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 373 students, 87% FRL); Alton Memorial J H (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 819 students, 91% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 477 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10033% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.