118 Sapling Dew Dr

Georgetown, TX 78628

$293,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-287/mo
• Annual: $-3,439/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $82,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $294k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Raye Mccoy El (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 524 students, 24% FRL); Douglas Benold Middle (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 664 students, 26% FRL); Georgetown H S (math 29% / reading 51%, grade F, #809 of 1,632 statewide, top 50%, 2,013 students, 27% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Georgetown ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1588 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.4% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.