389 Cherry St NW

Hartselle, AL 35640

$190,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,277 sqft · Built 1995 · Townhouse · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,398/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-110/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-110/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#32 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hartselle City (other): math 41% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #10 of 129 in AL (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crestline Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 550 students, 49% FRL); Hartselle Junior High School (math 33% / reading 63%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 527 students, 38% FRL); Hartselle High School (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D-, #18 of 305 statewide, top 6%, 1,031 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $190k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Hartselle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.