3295 Greenbrier St Unit D105

Vadnais Heights, MN 55127

$210,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,068/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$333
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-519/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-519/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (1.5% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#280 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Sunrise Park Middle (math 31% / reading 52%, grade F, #138 of 258 statewide, top 55%, 743 students, 39% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 134 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $210k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Vadnais Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.