8 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,512 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,077/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,096
Tax + insurance
−$348
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$646
Net cashflow
$986/mo
Annual
$11,834/yr
Cap rate
11.96%
Cash-on-cash
20.22%
DSCR
1.90
1% rule
1.47%
Cash to close
$58,520
Investor read
This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $986 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $190k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,680 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.3% in Ballston Spa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: exterior paint
— Needs repainting
Major: windows
— Older windows may need replacement