128 Winslow Cir

Savannah, GA 31407

$350,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,829 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,333/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#1 in GA, #397 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: employment D, schools F.
• Savannah-Chatham County (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #134 of 174 in GA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,694 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (973 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chatham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Savannah — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.