4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,952 sqft ·
Built 1924
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,300/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$363
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$483
Net cashflow
$772/mo
Annual
$9,263/yr
Cap rate
13.42%
Cash-on-cash
25.45%
DSCR
2.13
1% rule
1.77%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#144 in TX, #4,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, employment D+.
Pittsburg ISD (town): math 54% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #216 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Pittsburg El (math 34% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 545 students, 80% FRL); Pittsburg J H (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 349 students, 82% FRL); Pittsburg H S (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 726 students, 78% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Camp County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Camp County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
11 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.6% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,300/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Significant wear and tear on the roof.
Major: siding
— Peeling and chipping paint on the siding.
Major: flooring
— Carpeted flooring in poor condition.
Major: interior walls/paint
— Interior walls and paint in poor condition.
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and low curb appeal.
Major: HVAC/mechanicals
— No specific details on HVAC/mechanicals can be determined from the photos.
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