3472 Messersmith Rd

North Codorus, PA 17408

$240,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$336
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-196/mo
• Annual: $-2,353/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Spring Grove Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #98 of 539 in PA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spring Grove Area Ms (math 21% / reading 59%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 635 students, 35% FRL); Spring Grove Area Hs (math 71%, 1,166 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Spring Grove Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $195k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.