3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,685 sqft ·
Built 1915
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 187 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,906/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$156
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$400
Net cashflow
$563/mo
Annual
$6,756/yr
Cap rate
10.80%
Cash-on-cash
16.09%
DSCR
1.72
1% rule
1.27%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#70 in VA, #2,185 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: W.W. Robinson Elementary (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C-, #733 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 1,061 students, 74% FRL); Peter Muhlenberg Middle (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 451 students, 73% FRL); Central High (math 46% / reading 66%, grade C, #275 of 319 statewide, top 87%, 749 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 37% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $112k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.2% in Woodstock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GH8KH18HVQA4N4
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29