11924 Montgomery Ln

Waldorf, MD 20602

$296,500D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,639/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,555
• Tax + insurance: −$574
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-529/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $83,020

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-529/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Waldorf — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?