4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
3,512 sqft ·
Built 1995
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,521/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,015
Tax + insurance
−$367
HOA
−$77
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$739
Net cashflow
$-677/mo
Annual
$-8,127/yr
Cap rate
4.88%
Cash-on-cash
-5.05%
DSCR
0.78
1% rule
0.61%
Cash to close
$160,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $575k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-677 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $455k (20.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (38.8% below list).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $352k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#12 in GA, #1,990 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
Cherokee County (suburban): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #17 of 174 in GA (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Arnold Mill Elementary School (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #159 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 810 students, 22% FRL); Mill Creek Middle School (math 47% / reading 55%, grade C, #64 of 470 statewide, top 14%, 1,333 students, 25% FRL); River Ridge High School (math 18% / reading 46%, grade F, #110 of 424 statewide, top 28%, 1,914 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,665 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (852 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cherokee County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
12 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $281k; list at $575k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.6% in Roswell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GHRJJVAKE21C4Y
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29