22053 Aberdeen Dr

Mount Clemens, MI 48042

$278,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,474 sqft · Built 2021 · Condo · Pending · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,538/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-220/mo
• Annual: $-2,635/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $77,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#120 in MI, #2,918 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, employment D-.
• New Haven Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #305 of 540 in MI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 364 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Mount Clemens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?