4188 Sunrise

Homestead Valley, CA 92285

$69,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 1960 · Manufactured · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,314/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $586/mo
• Annual: $7,035/yr
• Cap rate: 16.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.41%
• DSCR: 2.62
• 1% rule: 1.90%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,167 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $69k implies a 475% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.7% in Homestead Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.