4121 Shepard Dr

Spartanburg, SC 29301

$190,000C+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,758 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,380/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#24 in SC, #3,679 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Spartanburg 06 (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #35 of 80 in SC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. P. Dawkins Middle (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #72 of 229 statewide, top 32%, 862 students, 76% FRL); Dorman High (math 46% / reading 78%, grade B-, #99 of 196 statewide, top 53%, 3,808 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Spartanburg 06 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,129 units permitted in Spartanburg County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spartanburg County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $190k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.9% in Spartanburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.