2112 Morningstar Rd

Appomattox, VA 24522

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,261/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-184/mo
• Annual: $-2,210/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (36.9% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $126k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#98 in VA, #3,144 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Appomattox County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #56 of 131 in VA (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Appomattox Primary (592 students, 72% FRL); Appomattox Middle (math 49% / reading 68%, grade B, #171 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 539 students, 74% FRL); Appomattox County High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 699 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Appomattox County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Appomattox County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Appomattox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.