4309 N Minnesota St

Combes, TX 78550

$88,000D+

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-50/mo
• Annual: $-600/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $24,640

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-600/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (3.8% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#728 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 465 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Combes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.