4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,931 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 135 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,303/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$86
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$274
Net cashflow
$787/mo
Annual
$9,440/yr
Cap rate
37.87%
Cash-on-cash
112.76%
DSCR
6.02
1% rule
4.36%
Cash to close
$8,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#139 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Webster Parish (town): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #67 of 98 in LA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Webster Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Webster County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $24k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 37.9% vs local median 7.0% in Springhill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GM9AMF72S7YKC3
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29