3439 E River Rd

Lumber City, GA 31549

$159,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 267 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-644/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-644/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (23.4% below list).
• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#176 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Telfair County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #122 of 174 in GA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Telfair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $159k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.