3 Ninth Ave

Danbury, CT 06810

$639,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 1880 · MultiFamily · Under Contract · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax + insurance: −$754
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,504
• Net cashflow: $1,553/mo
• Annual: $18,638/yr
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.42%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $178,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $639k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $639k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in CT, #3,379 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Danbury School District (urban): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #131 of 153 in CT (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hayestown Avenue School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #433 of 553 statewide, top 80%, 449 students, 47% FRL); Danbury High School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #137 of 194 statewide, top 70%, 3,590 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $400k; list at $639k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.6% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,162/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 3255% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.