5200 Freemansburg Lot 27 Ave

Bethlehem, PA 18045

$73,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · Built 1998 · Land · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$795
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $186/mo
• Annual: $2,234/yr
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 2.56%
• Cash to close: $20,692

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $511 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.2%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $74k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.3% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.