9321 Applecrest Dr

Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410

$445,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$874
• Net cashflow: $647/mo
• Annual: $7,766/yr
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.23%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $416k (6.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $416k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#464 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Franklin Academy- Palm Beach Gardens (math 45% / reading 56%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 1,046 students, 53% FRL, charter); Watson B. Duncan Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #171 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,157 students, 41% FRL); Palm Beach Gardens High School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,570 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,163/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 1429% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.